The concluding statement of IMF article IV Mission to the USA, the annual evaluation report by the International Monetary Fund, shows that growth in the United States has slowed down. After a 2.2% increase last year, the FMI has estimated that the US economy will grow by 1.9% in 2013, will gradually pick up in the following years (+2.7 in 2014, +3.5% in 2015 and +3.6% in 2016), and then slow down again in 2017 (+3.4%) and 2018 (+2.9%). According to the FMI report, the most dangerous risk factors that may negatively affect the US economy are the impact of fiscal consolidation, a weaker external environment and higher structural unemployment. External demand may also be held back by a slower pick-up in global economic activity. The Washington Institute underlines that fiscal and monetary policy challenges, for instance failure to promptly raise the debt ceiling, may have severe repercussions for the US in particularly and the global economy in general. Data shows how the tepid US economic growth in the first quarter of 2013 largely owes to consumption (+3.2% especially for non-durables and services) and to inventories. Fixed investments increased by 4.1%, driven by residential activity, whereas imports grew more considerably than exports (+5.4% versus 2.9%, respectively), thus generating a trade deficit. Public spending shrank by 4.1%, after plummeting by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Unemployment should also drop to 7.5% this year (8.1% in 2012), then fall to 7.2% next year and gradually reach 5.4% in 2018. The US is Italy's third leading export market (following Germany and France) and the first non-EU partner as it absorbs 7% of our total exports (up by 16,8% in 2012 versus the previous year). Sectorwise, the machine building industry continues to hold the lion's share with one-fifth of Italy's total exports, followed by means of transportation (16.8%), fashion and accessories (11.1%), agricultural, food and wine products (9.9%), and metal products (8.9%). The latter sector is the one that showed the most robust growth (+36%) versus 2011, along with refined oil products (+66.6%), as a result of the US oil majors operating in Italy.
